It may seem antithetical in a country so politically divided and so proud of its democratic ideals, but the United States has gained a reputation in recent years for lagging behind most (open in new tab) other industrialized nations in voter turnout. Indeed, despite the fact that voting (open in new tab) is one of the most direct ways to hold those in power accountable and gradually change sociopolitics, turnout has dropped to just shy of 50% of the electorate in presidential elections over the past 40 years.

But 2020 has the power to upend long-standing conventions, beliefs, and institutions. According to Michael McDonald, associate professor of political science at the University of Florida and director of the U.S. Elections Project (open in new tab), turnout in 2020 is likely to reach levels not seen since the 1900 presidential election, when William McKinley sought re-election.

Here is what we know so far about turnout in 2020.

McDonald's data estimates that about 160 million Americans voted this year, a turnout of more than 66% of the nation's 239.2 million eligible voters. This is a huge leap forward compared to presidential elections in previous decades: since 1968, turnout has only broken 60% on a few occasions, the highest of which was 61.6% in 2008; in 2016, 60.1% of eligible voters headed to the polls; in 2016, only 60.1% of eligible voters turned out to cast their ballots.

This year's estimated 66 percent turnout is higher than any turnout experienced in the past 100 years. The last time such a high percentage of voters exercised their right to vote was when most of the country did not have the right to vote; in the 1900 election, voter turnout exceeded 73 percent, nearly 20 years before women gained the right to vote and before the landmark Voting Rights Act of 1965 ensured protection for BIPOC voters It was even before. Interestingly, the 73.7 percent turnout in 1900 was on a downward trend, peaking at 83 percent in 1876, according to the U.S. Elections Project.

Demographic voter data will not be available for some time, but we have a good idea of the number of voters in each state. According to Bloomberg News (opens in new tab), voter turnout jumped from 2016 levels in 42 states. Of these, Minnesota, Colorado, and New Hampshire reportedly had the highest individual turnout rates, at 80.7%, 77.6%, and 76.5%, respectively.

The sharpest increase was recorded in Hawaii, where turnout rose from about 43% of voters in 2016 to over 56% in 2020. The remainder of the top 10 states with the most positive growth since the last presidential election were several battleground states, including Texas, Georgia, Michigan, and Florida.

As the COVID-19 epidemic continues, record numbers of Americans are looking for alternatives to voting in person on Election Day. As a result, this year's advance voting (including mail-in and absentee ballots, as well as in-person voting before November 3) broke previous records: according to U.S. Elections Project data (opens in new tab), more than 101 million voters cast an advance ballot this year.

This is not only more than double the number of Americans who voted early in 2016, but a whopping 73% of the total number of votes cast in 2016, Bloomberg News reports (opens in new tab). In fact, the U.S. According to the Erections Project, the number of early voters in Hawaii, Texas, Washington, Oregon, Montana, and Colorado ultimately exceeded the total number of votes cast in each state in 2016.

It is difficult to say exactly what prompted the historic turnout in 2020, but many factors likely contributed. For one, the increased availability and information about mail-in ballots and absentee ballots made voting easier this year than in previous years for many Americans, despite COVID's degradation of the USPS and the incumbent president's attempts to cast doubt on the legitimacy of mail-in ballots.

This ease of voting probably played a major role in accelerating the steady rise in voter turnout after the 2000 election. As Time (open in new tab) points out, the election greatly escalated political tensions and polarization, resulting in fewer undecided voters, more voter mobilization by political parties and advocacy groups, and thus more voters heading to the ballot box to support their chosen candidate.

Finally, and very simply, far more Americans actually cared about the outcome of this election than in previous years: according to an August 2020 Pew Research poll (open in new tab), 83% of registered voters felt that it "really matters" who becomes president Democrats and Republicans were about equally likely to feel that it "really matters" who becomes president. This figure is the highest ever in Pew's 20-year survey and an even bigger jump from 2016, when 74% of registered voters said the outcome of the contest between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton was important. Because for democracy to work, it is important for voters to be fully engaged.